USDPLN pops to highest close since November 28, 2019
US Dollar/Polish Zloty (USDPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, USDPLN ended the week 0.5% higher at 3.9234 after gaining 73 pips (0.19%) today. Today's close at 3.9234 marks the highest recorded closing price since November 28, 2019. Trading up to 166 pips lower after the open, the FX pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, USDPLN actually lost -0.24% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDPLN as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 323 pips (0.82%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 278 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDPLN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 3.8904 and 3.9317 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 3.8994 earlier during the day, USD/PLN bounced off the key technical support level at 3.9155 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels significance as support going forward.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/PLN. Out of 156 times, USDPLN closed lower 57.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 55.77% with an average market move of -0.14%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more