USDPLN unable to break through key resistance level
US Dollar/Polish Zloty (USDPLN) Technical Analysis Report for May 17, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDPLN ended the week 0.9% higher at 3.8594 after gaining 90 pips (0.23%) today. Today's close at 3.8594 marks the highest recorded closing price since May 11, 2017. Closing above Thursday's high at 3.8541, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 153 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDPLN as at May 17, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 253 pips (0.66%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 291 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDPLN.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 3.8419 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 3.8607 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 3.8694 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on Monday, USDPLN actually gained 0.22% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 3.8720, upside momentum could accelerate should the currency be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/PLN. Out of 328 times, USDPLN closed lower 52.44% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 57.01% with an average market move of -0.06%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.62% and AUDUSD closing -0.35% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 0.2% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.1%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 0.95% and CHFZAR closing 0.85% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.78% and GBPCAD closing -0.62% lower. Read more