USDPLN fails to close above 100-day moving average
US Dollar/Polish Zloty (USDPLN) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDPLN ended the week -0.66% lower at 3.7421 after gaining 76 pips (0.2%) today. Trading up to 171 pips lower after the open, the currency managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Thursday's high at 3.7390, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 159 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDPLN as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 376 pips (1.01%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 377 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDPLN. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 3.7167 and 3.7750 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
After trading down to 3.7173 earlier during the day, USD/PLN bounced off the key technical support level at 3.7260 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels significance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on January 4th, USDPLN actually lost -0.58% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 3.7549 during the day, the forex pair found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 3.7443. The pair found buyers again today around 3.7173 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 3.7167 in the prior session and at 3.7203 two days ago.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 3.7167 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/PLN. Out of 97 times, USDPLN closed higher 53.61% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.86% with an average market move of 0.32%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.71% and NZDUSD closing 0.69% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been EURUSD closing -0.27% lower and USDCHF losing -0.09%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDCAD surging 0.98% and GBPCAD closing 0.97% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURNZD tanking -1.04% and EURGBP closing -0.99% lower. Read more