USDNZD finds support at 20-day moving average
US Dollar/New Zealand Dollar (USDNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDNZD finished the month -3.87% lower at 1.5492 after losing 82 pips (-0.53%) today on low volume. Trading 78 pips higher after the open, USD/NZD was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Monday's low at 1.5521, the currency confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 46 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDNZD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 187 pips (1.2%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 193 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for USDNZD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar.
After trading as low as 1.5475 during the day, the market found support at the 20-day moving average at 1.5479. The last time this happened on May 18th, USDNZD actually lost -0.61% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
As prices are trading close to June's low at 1.5186, downside momentum might accelerate should the forex pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/NZD. Out of 628 times, USDNZD closed lower 50.96% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 53.82% with an average market move of -0.01%.