USDNZD runs into sellers again around 1.5569
US Dollar/New Zealand Dollar (USDNZD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDNZD finished the week -0.5% lower at 1.5540 after edging higher 7 pips (0.05%) today on low volume. Trading up to 19 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDNZD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 53 pips (0.34%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 98 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for USDNZD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1.5504 (S1). After having been unable to move above 1.5555 in the prior session, the currency ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 1.5569. The last time this happened on Tuesday, USDNZD lost -0.95% on the following trading day.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Spinning Top" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/NZD. Out of 243 times, USDNZD closed lower 54.32% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after six trading days, showing a win rate of 51.44% with an average market move of -0.01%.