USDNOK breaks below Monday's low
US Dollar/Norwegian Krone (USDNOK) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDNOK finished the month -2.0% lower at 9.5288 after losing 1460 pips (-1.51%) today on low volume. Trading 923 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Monday's low at 9.6467, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 1204 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDNOK as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 2431 pips (2.51%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 1812 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDNOK.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 9.4589 (S1). The pair closed below the 200-day moving average at 9.5301 for the first time since June 10th. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 3rd, USDNOK lost -1.07% on the following trading day. USD/NOK was sold again around 9.7694 after having seen highs at 9.7396, 9.7688 and 9.7402 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/NOK. Out of 152 times, USDNOK closed higher 61.18% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.26% with an average market move of 0.46%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURGBP tanking -0.9% and EURCAD closing -0.7% lower. Read more