USDNOK unable to break through key resistance level
US Dollar/Norwegian Krone (USDNOK) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, USDNOK finished Thursday at 10.4104 losing 3353 pips (-3.12%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Wednesday's low at 10.6767, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 2849 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDNOK as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 4915 pips (4.57%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 4605 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for USDNOK.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 10.3251 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 10.7958 (R1), the currency closed below it after spiking up to 10.8833 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on March 11th, USDNOK actually gained 4.84% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Black Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/NOK. Out of 543 times, USDNOK closed higher 52.85% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.51% with an average market move of 0.27%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDCZK closing -2.26% lower. Read more