USDMXN closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
US Dollar/Mexican Peso (USDMXN) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDMXN finished the month 3.77% higher at 23.011 after losing 49 pips (-0.21%) today on high volume. Trading 165 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on June 25th, USDMXN actually gained 1.73% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDMXN as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 298 pips (1.29%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 445 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDMXN.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 22.860 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 22.932 in the prior session, the FX pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 22.932.
The currency shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/MXN. Out of 613 times, USDMXN closed higher 50.73% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.90% with an average market move of 0.21%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more