USDMXN closes lower for the 5th day in a row
US Dollar/Mexican Peso (USDMXN) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, USDMXN finished the week -1.2% lower at 18.543 after losing 54 pips (-0.29%) today on low volume. Today's close at 18.543 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 8, 2018. Closing below Thursday's low at 18.581, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 46 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDMXN as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 86 pips (0.46%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 142 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDMXN.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Short Candle and the Black Candle which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Short Candle showed up on December 12, 2019, USDMXN lost -0.25% on the following trading day.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 18.559 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/MXN. Out of 32 times, USDMXN closed lower 53.13% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.63% with an average market move of -0.00%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more