USDJPY fails to close above 20-day moving average
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 29, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, USDJPY finished Monday at 107.57 gaining 35 pips (0.33%) on low volume. Closing above Friday's high at 107.36, the pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 52 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDJPY as at Jun 29, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 84 pips (0.78%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 72 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDJPY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Top Pattern.
The Yen managed to close above the 50-day moving average at 107.39 for the first time since June 9th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on June 2nd, USDJPY gained 0.20% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 107.88 during the day, the market found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 107.59.
Although the forex pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Top Pattern" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/JPY. Out of 83 times, USDJPY closed lower 60.24% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.42% with an average market move of -0.06%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are USDCHF surging 0.33% and EURUSD gaining 0.21%. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.29% lower and USDCAD losing -0.2%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURJPY surging 0.55% and EURCHF closing 0.55% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPPLN tanking -0.78% and GBPCAD closing -0.5% lower. Read more