USDJPY breaks below 20-day moving average for the first time since January 7th
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, USDJPY ended the week -0.8% lower at 109.28 after losing 21 pips (-0.19%) today on high volume. Trading 16 pips higher after the open, the Yen was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Wednesday, USDJPY lost -0.32% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDJPY as at Jan 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 48 pips (0.44%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 50 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDJPY.
The market closed below the 20-day moving average at 109.37 for the first time since January 7th.
Though the forex pair is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Bearish Intraday Reversal" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/JPY. Out of 379 times, USDJPY closed lower 49.87% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.09% with an average market move of -0.04%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.41% and AUDUSD closing -0.34% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.23% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.14%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDNOK surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPJPY tanking -0.6% and AUDJPY closing -0.53% lower. Read more