USDJPY pushes through Tuesday's high
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 09, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDJPY ended Wednesday at 107.48 gaining 39 pips (0.36%). Closing above Tuesday's high at 107.44, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 19 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDJPY as at Oct 09, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been 69 pips (0.64%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 63 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for USDJPY.
Regardless of a weak opening the currency managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on Monday, USDJPY actually lost -0.15% on the following trading day. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the White Candle which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 107.10 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. After spiking up to 107.63 during the day, the pair found resistance at the 100-day moving average at 107.62.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Further buying could move prices higher should the market test September's close-by high at 108.48.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/JPY. Out of 71 times, USDJPY closed lower 57.75% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.52% with an average market move of -0.10%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are USDCHF surging 0.3% and EURUSD gaining 0.13%. On the flipside the worst performers have been GBPUSD closing -0.11% lower and NZDUSD losing -0.11%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been ZARJPY surging 1.0% and EURTRY closing 0.82% higher. The worst performers of the day have been CHFZAR tanking -1.01% and GBPZAR closing -0.82% lower. Read more