USDJPY runs into sellers again around 113.21
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 06, 2018 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDJPY ended Thursday at 112.67 tanking 52 pips (-0.46%) on high volume ahead of tomorrow's NFP report. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDJPY as at Dec 06, 2018):
Thursday's trading range has been 98 pips (0.87%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 59 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDJPY.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern and the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on October 25th, USDJPY actually lost -0.46% on the following trading day.
After trading as low as 112.23 during the day, the market found support at the 100-day moving average at 112.25. The pair closed back below the 50-day moving average at 113.08. After having been unable to move above 113.24 in the prior session, USD/JPY ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 113.21.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 100" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/JPY. Out of 69 times, USDJPY closed higher 53.62% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.52% with an average market move of 0.55%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are GBPUSD surging 0.4% and EURUSD gaining 0.29%. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -0.51% lower and AUDUSD losing -0.47%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been CHFZAR surging 1.97% and GBPZAR closing 1.85% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -1.96% and AUDCHF closing -0.98% lower. Read more