USDINR runs into sellers again around 75.3950
US Dollar/Indian Rupee (USDINR) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDINR finished the month 0.35% higher at 75.2920 after edging higher 250 pips (0.03%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDINR as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 2615 pips (0.35%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 4592 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDINR.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on June 22nd, USDINR actually lost -0.18% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 75.4675 (R1). After having been unable to move above 75.4455 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 75.3950.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 75.5790 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 74.8995 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to June's low at 74.6295, downside momentum might speed up should USD/INR mark new lows for the month.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/INR. Out of 857 times, USDINR closed lower 52.86% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more