USDINR breaks back above 50-day moving average
US Dollar/Indian Rupee (USDINR) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDINR finished the week 0.3% higher at 75.4660 after gaining 4050 pips (0.54%) today. Today's close at 75.4660 marks the highest recorded closing price since April 27th. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 75.2535, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 2960 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDINR as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 4900 pips (0.65%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 5824 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for USDINR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 74.8605 and 75.5495 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
USD/INR managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 75.3707 for the first time since May 11th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on May 11th, USDINR actually lost -0.95% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 74.8685 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) above 80" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/INR. Out of 312 times, USDINR closed lower 56.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 58.33% with an average market move of -0.03%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.47% and EURUSD closing -0.44% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCAD closing 0.33% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.08%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDCZK surging 1.09% and USDHUF closing 0.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -0.58% and SGDHKD closing -0.51% lower. Read more