USDINR runs into sellers again around 76.3180
US Dollar/Indian Rupee (USDINR) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, USDINR finished Thursday at 74.9390 tanking 9240 pips (-1.22%) on high volume. This is the biggest single-day loss in over a year. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on March 10th, USDINR actually gained 0.73% on the following trading day. Closing below Wednesday's low at 75.7720, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 9030 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDINR as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 14490 pips (1.91%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 11219 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for USDINR.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 74.7800 (S1). After having been unable to move above 76.4405 in the previous session, the currency ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 76.3180.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/INR. Out of 585 times, USDINR closed higher 53.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.41% with an average market move of 0.21%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more