USDINR closes higher for the 2nd day in a row
US Dollar/Indian Rupee (USDINR) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDINR finished the week 0.09% higher at 71.5510 after surging 2780 pips (0.39%) today. This is the biggest single-day gain in over a month. Closing above Thursday's high at 71.4385, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 1650 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDINR as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 4205 pips (0.59%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 3245 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for USDINR.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 71.3300 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 71.7395 (R1). After having been unable to move lower than 71.1505 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 71.1830. The last time this happened on February 6th, USDINR gained 0.34% on the following trading day.
Although the currency is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 72.2040, upside momentum might speed up should the FX pair be able to break out to new highs for the year. As prices are trading close to February's high at 71.7895, upside momentum could accelerate should USD/INR mark new highs for the month. As prices are trading close to February's low at 71.0275, downside momentum might speed up should the pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) above 80" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/INR. Out of 310 times, USDINR closed lower 56.13% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 58.71% with an average market move of -0.03%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more