USDHUF pushes through Thursday's high
US Dollar/Hungarian Forint (USDHUF) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 07, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDHUF finished the week 0.53% higher at 293.6605 after gaining 23050 pips (0.79%) today. Closing above Thursday's high at 292.7685, the currency confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 27340 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDHUF as at Aug 07, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 45820 pips (1.57%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 38210 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDHUF.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on July 28th, USDHUF actually lost -1.20% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 295.8925 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 289.1155 where further sell stops might get triggered. 2019's low at 273.8965 is within reach and we could see further downside momentum should the market break out beyond. Trading close to June's high at 318.7720 we might see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get activated.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "2 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/HUF. Out of 329 times, USDHUF closed higher 53.19% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.28% with an average market move of 0.13%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.33% and AUDUSD closing -1.06% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCAD closing 0.57% higher and USDJPY gaining 0.36%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.26% and CHFZAR closing 0.97% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDHKD tanking -1.33% and AUDHKD closing -1.08% lower. Read more