USDHUF closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
US Dollar/Hungarian Forint (USDHUF) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDHUF ended the month -7.43% lower at 292.1025 after gaining 10460 pips (0.36%) today. Trading up to 18490 pips lower after the open, the forex pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on July 16th, USDHUF actually lost -0.55% on the following trading day. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDHUF as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 37705 pips (1.3%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 37504 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDHUF.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 297.0365 where further buy stops might get activated. 2019's low at 273.8965 is within reach and we could see further downside momentum should the pair break out beyond. Trading close to May's high at 329.1670 we might see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get triggered.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/HUF. Out of 790 times, USDHUF closed lower 50.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.66% with an average market move of -0.13%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and AUDUSD closing -0.72% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more