USDHUF closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
US Dollar/Hungarian Forint (USDHUF) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 10, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDHUF ended the week -0.5% lower at 312.4805 after losing 7090 pips (-0.23%) today. Trading 14735 pips higher after the open, the FX pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDHUF as at Jul 10, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 30715 pips (0.98%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 36577 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDHUF.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on June 9th, USDHUF lost -0.58% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 315.8455 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 310.3530 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 292.3990, downside momentum could speed up should the currency break out to new lows for the year. Trading close to May's high at 329.1670 we might see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test June's close-by low at 300.5375.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/HUF. Out of 273 times, USDHUF closed lower 52.75% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after six trading days, showing a win rate of 52.75% with an average market move of -0.01%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.13% and EURUSD closing 0.13% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.27% lower and AUDUSD losing -0.2%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been EURAUD surging 0.35% and GBPAUD closing 0.34% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -0.89% and AUDJPY closing -0.47% lower. Read more