USDHUF closes within prior day's range
US Dollar/Hungarian Forint (USDHUF) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDHUF finished the month 1.13% higher at 315.5635 after losing 14640 pips (-0.46%) today. Trading 16615 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDHUF as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 44720 pips (1.41%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 38219 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDHUF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 314.3000 and 318.7720 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Even with a strong opening the pair closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle.
The market closed back below the 100-day moving average at 316.8163. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on May 28th, USDHUF lost -1.08% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 314.8520 in the previous session, the FX pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 314.3000.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 308.6128.
The forex pair shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 307.5900 where further sell stops could get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 292.3990, downside momentum might speed up should USD/HUF break out to new lows for the year. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test May's nearby high at 329.1670. As prices are trading close to June's low at 300.5375, downside momentum might accelerate should USDHUF mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Outside Bar" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/HUF. Out of 150 times, USDHUF closed higher 51.33% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 62.00% with an average market move of 0.50%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more