USDHUF unable to break through key resistance level
US Dollar/Hungarian Forint (USDHUF) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, USDHUF finished the week -0.53% lower at 280.0345 after gaining 5990 pips (0.21%) today. Trading up to 12740 pips lower after the open, the pair managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing above Thursday's high at 279.8720, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 10775 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDHUF as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 29215 pips (1.05%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 30298 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDHUF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 277.8440 and 282.1810 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top. The last time a Bullish Spinning Top showed up on December 19, 2018, USDHUF actually lost -1.03% on the following trading day.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 280.5765 (R1), the FX pair closed below it after spiking up to 280.9495 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward. The currency found buyers again today around 278.0280 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 277.8440 in the prior session and at 278.1160 two days ago.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 281.9645 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 277.8440 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Spinning Top" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for USD/HUF. Out of 278 times, USDHUF closed lower 57.91% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after seven trading days, showing a win rate of 51.44% with an average market move of -0.08%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.71% and NZDUSD closing 0.69% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been EURUSD closing -0.27% lower and USDCHF losing -0.09%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDCAD surging 0.98% and GBPCAD closing 0.97% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURNZD tanking -1.04% and EURGBP closing -0.99% lower. Read more