USDHKD closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
US Dollar/Hong Kong Dollar (USDHKD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 6th day in a row, USDHKD finished Thursday at 7.7520 losing 3 pips (-0.0%). Today's close at 7.7520 marks the lowest recorded closing price since January 5, 2016. Trading 30 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDHKD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 37 pips (0.05%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 97 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for USDHKD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
The FX pair found buyers again today around 7.7516 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 7.7518 in the previous session and at 7.7524 two days ago. The last time this happened on March 19th, USDHKD actually lost -0.05% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "6 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/HKD. Out of 7 times, USDHKD closed lower 57.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 71.43% with an average market move of -0.05%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more