USDEUR tumbles -1.35% closing 124 pips lower
US Dollar/Euro (USDEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, USDEUR finished Thursday at 0.9065 tanking 124 pips (-1.35%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over two years. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on March 9th, USDEUR actually gained 1.41% on the following trading day. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Wednesday's low at 0.9179, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 137 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDEUR as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 158 pips (1.72%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 143 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for USDEUR.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading as low as 0.9042 during the day, USD/EUR found support at the 100-day moving average at 0.9055. The market closed back below the 50-day moving average at 0.9095 for the first time since March 16th.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "5 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/EUR. Out of 26 times, USDEUR closed higher 65.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 73.08% with an average market move of 0.47%.