USDCZK closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
US Dollar/Czech Koruna (USDCZK) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDCZK finished the month -2.14% lower at 23.7417 after losing 782 pips (-0.33%) today. Trading 1452 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCZK as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 3200 pips (1.34%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 3080 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly lower than usual for USDCZK.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After trading as low as 23.6479 during the day, the market found support at the 200-day moving average at 23.6527. The last time this happened on June 3rd, USDCZK actually lost -0.78% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 23.9351 (R1), the pair closed below it after spiking up to 23.9679 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
The FX pair shows strength in the short-term supported by its long-term uptrend with only the medium-term trend being bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 24.0018 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 23.4560 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 200" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CZK. Out of 57 times, USDCZK closed higher 64.91% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.14% with an average market move of 0.28%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more