USDCNH closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
US Dollar/Chinese Yuan Renminbi (USDCNH) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDCNH ended the month -0.88% lower at 7.0709 after losing 57 pips (-0.08%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCNH as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 183 pips (0.26%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 291 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for USDCNH.
USD/CNH closed back below the 100-day moving average at 7.0716 for the first time since June 23rd. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on June 22nd, USDCNH actually gained 0.04% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 7.0900 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 7.0453 where further sell stops might get activated. Trading close to April's low at 7.0365 we could see further downside momentum if potential sell stops at the level get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "RSI(2) below 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CNH. Out of 275 times, USDCNH closed higher 50.55% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.18% with an average market move of 0.08%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and USDCHF losing -0.41%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more