USDCHF finds buyers at key support level
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDCHF ended the month -1.47% lower at 0.9473 after losing 39 pips (-0.41%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 70 pips (0.74%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 69 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDCHF.
In spite of a strong opening the Swissy closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
After trading down to 0.9462 earlier during the day, USD/CHF bounced off the key technical support level at 0.9464 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on June 11th, USDCHF gained 0.87% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move above 0.9525 in the previous session, the pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 0.9532.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.9442 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to June's low at 0.9376, downside momentum might accelerate should the FX pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Support S1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CHF. Out of 517 times, USDCHF closed higher 54.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.80% with an average market move of 0.06%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.82% and NZDUSD closing 0.53% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCAD closing -0.62% lower and EURUSD losing -0.08%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPZAR surging 1.31% and GBPJPY closing 1.16% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDNOK tanking -1.51% and EURGBP closing -0.9% lower. Read more