USDCHF dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, USDCHF finished Thursday at 0.9632 tanking 140 pips (-1.43%). This is the biggest single-day loss in over three years. The last time we've seen such an unusually strong single-day loss on March 9th, USDCHF actually gained 1.59% on the following trading day. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Wednesday's low at 0.9755, USD/CHF confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 152 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 176 pips (1.8%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 142 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently notably higher than usual for USDCHF.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.9569 (S1). The currency closed back below the 100-day moving average at 0.9759 for the first time since March 18th.
Though the pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Hikkake Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CHF. Out of 119 times, USDCHF closed higher 57.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.30% with an average market move of 0.20%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -1.42% lower and USDCAD losing -1.2%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more