USDCHF runs into sellers around 0.9846 for the third day in a row
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 21, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDCHF ended the week -0.4% lower at 0.9783 after tanking 59 pips (-0.6%) today on high volume. This is the biggest single-day loss in over three weeks. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 0.9815, the Swissy confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 44 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Feb 21, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 75 pips (0.76%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 44 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for USDCHF.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
The currency closed back below the 100-day moving average at 0.9834. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on December 9, 2019, USDCHF lost -0.34% on the following trading day. The FX pair ran into sellers again today around 0.9846 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 0.9849 in the prior session and at 0.9845 two days ago.
Although USD/CHF is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CHF. Out of 70 times, USDCHF closed lower 55.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.43% with an average market move of -0.09%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and EURUSD closing 0.57% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.5% lower and USDCAD losing -0.26%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been CHFHKD surging 0.71% and GBPHKD closing 0.7% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDHUF tanking -1.01% and USDSEK closing -0.95% lower. Read more