USDCHF pushes through Thursday's high
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, USDCHF finished the week 0.47% higher at 0.9822 after gaining 27 pips (0.28%) today on low volume. Today's close at 0.9822 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 20, 2019. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 0.9796, the Swissy confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to 27 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 37 pips (0.38%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 43 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDCHF.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle. The last time a White Candle showed up on Wednesday, USDCHF gained 0.13% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since February 7th, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices could head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 0.9724 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices.
Although the market is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed above last periods high" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CHF. Out of 618 times, USDCHF closed higher 49.35% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 53.72% with an average market move of 0.04%.
With five out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been GBPUSD closing 0.02% higher. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more