USDCHF unable to break through key resistance level
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, USDCHF finished the week 0.14% higher at 0.9969 after edging higher 1 pip (0.01%) today on high volume. Trading 21 pips higher after the open, the FX pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on October 1st, USDCHF actually gained 0.38% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Oct 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 33 pips (0.33%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 63 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDCHF. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.9905 and 0.9991 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Northern Doji which is known as bearish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 0.9976 (R1), USD/CHF closed below it after spiking up to 0.9991 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels importance going forward.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.0028 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.9914 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Doji" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/CHF. Out of 141 times, USDCHF closed higher 53.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 54.61% with an average market move of 0.21%.
With five out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 1.67% and AUDUSD closing 0.47% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been USDCAD closing -0.67% lower. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been ZARJPY surging 2.23% and GBPJPY closing 2.1% higher. The worst performers of the day have been CHFZAR tanking -1.88% and USDZAR closing -1.87% lower. Read more