USDCHF runs into sellers again around 1.0053
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, USDCHF ended the week -0.61% lower at 1.0021 after losing 17 pips (-0.17%) today. Trading 14 pips higher after the open, the FX pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.0029, USD/CHF confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 18 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Mar 15, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 42 pips (0.42%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 47 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDCHF.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.9995 (S1). The currency closed back below the 20-day moving average at 1.0032 for the first time since March 4th. After having been unable to move above 1.0052 in the previous session, the pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 1.0053. The last time this happened on Tuesday, USDCHF lost -0.39% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
As prices are trading close to March's low at 0.9964, downside momentum could speed up should the Swissy mark new lows for the month.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CHF. Out of 80 times, USDCHF closed higher 57.50% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.75% with an average market move of 0.33%.
With five out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.39% and NZDUSD closing 0.31% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been USDJPY closing -0.19% lower. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been ZARJPY surging 0.78% and GBPCAD closing 0.4% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDZAR tanking -0.91% and USDSEK closing -0.8% lower. Read more