USDCHF climbs to highest close since November 15, 2018
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDCHF ended Monday at 1.0040 gaining 37 pips (0.37%) on low volume. Today's close at 1.0040 marks the highest recorded closing price since November 15, 2018. Closing above Friday's high at 1.0028, the forex pair confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to 72 pips above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Feb 11, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been 113 pips (1.13%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 49 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDCHF.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar.
Buyers managed to take out the key technical resistance level at 1.0029 (now S1), which is likely to act as support going forward. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 1.0095 (R1), the market closed below it after spiking up to 1.0100 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward. When prices bounced off a significant resistance level the last time on February 7th, USDCHF lost -0.21% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
2018's high at 1.0129 is within reach and we might see further upside momentum should USD/CHF manage to break out beyond.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish Outside Bar" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CHF. Out of 138 times, USDCHF closed higher 55.80% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.45% with an average market move of 0.02%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.63% and EURUSD closing -0.41% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 0.57% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.18%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.38% and USDMXN closing 1.17% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.74% and GBPHKD closing -0.63% lower. Read more