USDCHF runs into sellers again around 0.9856
US Dollar/Swiss Franc (USDCHF) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDCHF finished the week -0.27% lower at 0.9838 after edging lower 9 pips (-0.09%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCHF as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 42 pips (0.43%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of 82 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for USDCHF.
After moving higher in the previous session, the currency closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 0.9790 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 0.9857 (R1). After having been unable to move above 0.9850 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 0.9856. The last time this happened on Wednesday, USDCHF actually gained 1.05% on the following trading day.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Harami Candle" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/CHF. Out of 89 times, USDCHF closed higher 60.67% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.30% with an average market move of 0.14%.
With five out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.71% and NZDUSD closing 0.69% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been EURUSD closing -0.27% lower. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDCAD surging 0.98% and GBPCAD closing 0.97% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURNZD tanking -1.04% and EURGBP closing -0.99% lower. Read more