USDCAD still stuck within tight trading range
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 31, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDCAD finished the month -1.22% lower at 1.3411 after losing 11 pips (-0.08%) today on high volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCAD as at Jul 31, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 65 pips (0.48%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 79 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDCAD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.3331 and 1.3460 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.3460 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.3331 where further sell stops might get activated. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test June's close-by low at 1.3316.
Among the two market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/CAD. Out of 765 times, USDCAD closed higher 49.80% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 50.07% with an average market move of 0.08%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NZDUSD losing -1.04% and AUDUSD closing -0.72% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDJPY closing 1.12% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.48%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDZAR surging 1.87% and GBPZAR closing 1.79% higher. The worst performers of the day have been NZDCAD tanking -1.15% and NZDHKD closing -1.05% lower. Read more