USDCAD breaks below key technical support level
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 26, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, USDCAD ended Thursday at 1.4020 losing 171 pips (-1.2%). Closing below Wednesday's low at 1.4178, the pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 168 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCAD as at Mar 26, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 266 pips (1.87%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of 210 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for USDCAD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 1.4149 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The last time this happened on February 14th, USDCAD lost -0.13% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/CAD. Out of 609 times, USDCAD closed higher 54.52% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.53% with an average market move of 0.19%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 2.72% and NZDUSD closing 1.88% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDCHF closing -1.43% lower and USDJPY losing -1.42%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPHKD surging 2.72% and GBPZAR closing 2.65% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -4.12% and USDNOK closing -3.12% lower. Read more