USDCAD closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDCAD ended the week -0.41% lower at 1.3252 after losing 16 pips (-0.12%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCAD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 34 pips (0.26%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 48 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDCAD.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern. The last time a Bullish Hikkake Pattern showed up on December 26, 2019, USDCAD actually lost -0.24% on the following trading day.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 1.3263 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The currency found buyers again today around 1.3236 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 1.3240 in the previous session and at 1.3236 two days ago.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.3236 where further sell stops could get triggered. As prices are trading close to February's low at 1.3232, downside momentum might accelerate should the pair mark new lows for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to prior low" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CAD. Out of 704 times, USDCAD closed higher 53.13% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.55% with an average market move of 0.10%.
With four out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are EURUSD losing -0.08% and AUDUSD closing -0.07% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more