USDCAD fails to close above 50-day moving average
US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
USDCAD finished Thursday at 1.3127 losing 8 pips (-0.06%). Trading 36 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, USDCAD actually gained 0.18% on the following trading day. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCAD as at Jan 23, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 48 pips (0.37%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 53 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for USDCAD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Shooting Star.
After spiking up to 1.3172 during the day, the market found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 1.3155.
While the Loonie is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Shooting Star" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/CAD. Out of 73 times, USDCAD closed lower 56.16% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after five trading days, showing a win rate of 57.53% with an average market move of -0.03%.
With three of the other Major FX Pairs closing higher and three closing lower today, the winners of the day are NZDUSD surging 0.38% and USDCHF gaining 0.11%. On the flipside the worst performers have been EURUSD closing -0.34% lower and USDJPY losing -0.32%. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been NZDSGD surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been ZARJPY tanking -0.91% and EURNZD closing -0.72% lower. Read more