USDCAD declines to lowest close since September 11th

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) Technical Analysis Report for Oct 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team


USDCAD crashes, losing 89 pips (-0.67%) within a single day on high volume
USDCAD breaks back below 200-day moving average
USDCAD falls to lowest close since September 11th
USDCAD dominated by bears dragging the market lower throughout the day
USDCAD closes lower for the 2nd day in a row


Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDCAD ended the week -0.83% lower at 1.3202 after tanking 89 pips (-0.67%) today on high volume. This is the biggest single-day loss in over a month. Today's close at 1.3202 marks the lowest recorded closing price since September 11th. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.3269, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 98 pips below it intraday.

Daily Candlestick Chart (USDCAD as at Oct 11, 2019):

Daily technical analysis candlestick chart for US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) as at Oct 11, 2019

Friday's trading range has been 129 pips (0.97%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of 61 pips. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDCAD.

One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.

USD/CAD closed back below the 200-day moving average at 1.3288 for the first time since October 1st. When this moving average was crossed below the last time on September 4th, USDCAD actually gained 0.03% on the following trading day.

The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.

Further selling might move prices lower should the market test September's close-by low at 1.3134.

Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/CAD. Out of 74 times, USDCAD closed higher 54.05% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.41% with an average market move of 0.35%.

With six out of the other six Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 1.67% and AUDUSD closing 0.47% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Looking at the Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been ZARJPY surging 2.23% and GBPJPY closing 2.1% higher. The worst performers of the day have been CHFZAR tanking -1.88% and USDZAR closing -1.87% lower. Read more

Market Conditions for USDCAD as at Oct 11, 2019

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