USDAUD closes within prior day's range
US Dollar/Australian Dollar (USDAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 5th day in a row, USDAUD finished Thursday at 1.3899 losing 13 pips (-0.09%). Today's close at 1.3899 marks the lowest recorded closing price since February 5, 2019. Trading 129 pips higher after the open, the market was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDAUD as at Jul 30, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been 150 pips (1.08%), that's above the last trading month's daily average range of 125 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDAUD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar.
Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 1.3922 (R1), USD/AUD closed below it after spiking up to 1.4043 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels significance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 1.3895 in the previous session, the forex pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 1.3893. The last time this happened on July 7th, USDAUD actually lost -0.49% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
2019's low at 1.3708 is within reach and we might see further downside momentum should the pair break out beyond.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week Low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for USD/AUD. Out of 52 times, USDAUD closed lower 55.77% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.85% with an average market move of -0.07%.