USDAUD falls to lowest close since April 19, 2019
US Dollar/Australian Dollar (USDAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 27, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDAUD finished Monday at 1.3986 losing 87 pips (-0.62%). Today's close at 1.3986 marks the lowest recorded closing price since April 19, 2019. The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Friday's low at 1.4035, the pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 49 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDAUD as at Jul 27, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been 126 pips (0.89%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 127 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for USDAUD.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern showed up on December 26, 2019, USDAUD actually lost -0.53% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1.3922 where further sell stops might get triggered. 2019's low at 1.3708 is within reach and we could see further downside momentum should USD/AUD break out beyond.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Down Move" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/AUD. Out of 296 times, USDAUD closed higher 53.04% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.70% with an average market move of 0.33%.