USDAUD breaks below Monday's low
US Dollar/Australian Dollar (USDAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 30, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, USDAUD finished the month -3.39% lower at 1.4486 after losing 76 pips (-0.52%) today on low volume. Trading 70 pips higher after the open, the currency was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Monday's low at 1.4512, USD/AUD confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to 44 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDAUD as at Jun 30, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been 167 pips (1.15%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 210 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for USDAUD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar.
After trading as low as 1.4468 during the day, the FX pair found support at the 20-day moving average at 1.4478. The last time this happened on January 16th, USDAUD gained 0.37% on the following trading day. Prices broke below the key technical support level at 1.4495 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The forex pair ran into sellers again today around 1.4635 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 1.4618 in the prior session and at 1.4618 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1.4682 where further buy stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 1.4156, downside momentum might accelerate should the pair break out to new lows for the year.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Support S1" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/AUD. Out of 376 times, USDAUD closed higher 53.46% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.93% with an average market move of 0.28%.