USDAUD closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
US Dollar/Australian Dollar (USDAUD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, USDAUD finished the week -0.47% lower at 1.4535 after losing 30 pips (-0.21%) today. Today's close at 1.4535 marks the lowest recorded closing price since July 29th. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (USDAUD as at Sep 13, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been 65 pips (0.45%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 87 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for USDAUD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1.4503 and 1.4601 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
After having been unable to move lower than 1.4503 in the previous session, USD/AUD found buyers again around the same price level today at 1.4514. The last time this happened on September 2nd, USDAUD actually lost -0.66% on the following trading day.
Although the currency is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 1.4503 where further sell stops could get triggered.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "3 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for USD/AUD. Out of 154 times, USDAUD closed higher 50.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 51.95% with an average market move of 0.11%.