TRYUSD closes lower for the 4th day in a row
Turkish Lira/US Dollar (TRYUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, TRYUSD ended Wednesday at 0.1333 losing 1 pip (-0.07%). Today's close at 0.1333 marks the lowest recorded closing price ever. Trading 5 pips higher after the open, the forex pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYUSD as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 11 pips (0.82%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 15 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TRYUSD.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the previous day's high as well as below the prior day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on July 27th, TRYUSD lost -1.03% on the following trading day. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
After having been unable to move above 0.1338 in the previous session, the pair ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 0.1339.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 0.1349 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "52 Week Low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for TRY/USD. Out of 164 times, TRYUSD closed lower 56.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.37% with an average market move of -1.08%.