TRYUSD finds buyers around 0.1648 for the third day in a row
Turkish Lira/US Dollar (TRYUSD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TRYUSD finished the week -0.66% lower at 0.1651 after losing 4 pips (-0.24%) today on low volume. Today's close at 0.1651 marks the lowest recorded closing price since May 27, 2019. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYUSD as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 8 pips (0.48%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 9 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TRYUSD.
Three candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern and the Tweezer Bottom which are both known as bullish patterns and one bearish pattern, the Black Candle. The last time a Last Engulfing Bottom Pattern showed up on February 6th, TRYUSD actually lost -0.48% on the following trading day.
The market found buyers again today around 0.1648 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.1648 in the previous session and at 0.1648 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Tweezer Bottom" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for TRY/USD. Out of 51 times, TRYUSD closed lower 60.78% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.86% with an average market move of -0.72%.