TRYJPY slides to lowest close ever
Turkish Lira/Japanese Yen (TRYJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, TRYJPY finished Wednesday at 13.98 tanking 9 pips (-0.64%). Today's close at 13.98 marks the lowest recorded closing price ever. Closing below Tuesday's low at 14.06, the FX pair confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to 13 pips below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYJPY as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 15 pips (1.07%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 18 pips. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TRYJPY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Crossing below the lower Bollinger Band for the first time since September 8th, prices have shown unusually strong downward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential selling climax after which prices could head back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 14.30 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even lower prices. The last time prices broke out below the lower Bollinger Band on September 8th, TRYJPY actually gained 0.07% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Closed below last periods low" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for TRY/JPY. Out of 568 times, TRYJPY closed lower 50.70% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.81% with an average market move of -0.43%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are GBPUSD gaining 0.61% and NZDUSD closing 0.27% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been USDJPY closing -0.47% lower and EURUSD losing -0.25%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been GBPPLN surging 0.81% and ZARJPY closing 0.78% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURZAR tanking -1.42% and CHFZAR closing -1.28% lower. Read more