TRYJPY misses to close above 50-day moving average
Turkish Lira/Japanese Yen (TRYJPY) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TRYJPY ended the week 1.87% higher at 15.80 after losing 4 pips (-0.25%) today on low volume. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYJPY as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 13 pips (0.82%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 21 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for TRYJPY.
Notwithstanding a strong opening the forex pair closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on March 26th, TRYJPY lost -2.45% on the following trading day. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern which is known as bullish pattern and one bearish pattern, the Bearish Spinning Top.
After spiking up to 15.88 during the day, TRY/JPY found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 15.87. After having been unable to move above 15.89 in the previous session, the currency ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 15.88.
While the FX pair is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 15.97 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for TRY/JPY. Out of 104 times, TRYJPY closed lower 57.69% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.42% with an average market move of -0.81%.
With four out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.47% and EURUSD closing -0.44% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCAD closing 0.33% higher and USDCHF gaining 0.08%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDCZK surging 1.09% and USDHUF closing 0.9% higher. The worst performers of the day have been USDMXN tanking -0.58% and SGDHKD closing -0.51% lower. Read more