TRYJPY closes within prior day's range
Turkish Lira/Japanese Yen (TRYJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, TRYJPY ended the week -0.55% lower at 18.12 after losing 4 pips (-0.22%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYJPY as at Feb 14, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 13 pips (0.71%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 15 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TRYJPY.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 18.08 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 18.07 in the prior session, the FX pair found buyers again around the same price level today at 18.09. The last time this happened on Wednesday, TRYJPY actually lost -0.27% on the following trading day.
Although TRY/JPY is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the nearby swing low at 18.07 where further sell stops might get activated. With prices trading close to this year's low at 17.99, downside momentum could speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to previous High" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for TRY/JPY. Out of 772 times, TRYJPY closed lower 52.20% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.51% with an average market move of -0.56%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are USDCAD losing -0.12% and EURUSD closing -0.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.28% higher and GBPUSD gaining 0.02%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDSEK surging 0.51% and EURSEK closing 0.43% higher. The worst performers of the day have been EURHUF tanking -0.65% and USDHUF closing -0.58% lower. Read more