TRYJPY unable to break through key resistance level
Turkish Lira/Japanese Yen (TRYJPY) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 24, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, TRYJPY ended the week -1.66% lower at 18.40 after losing 5 pips (-0.27%) today. Trading 6 pips higher after the open, the pair was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYJPY as at Jan 24, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been 14 pips (0.76%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of 17 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for TRYJPY.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 18.33 (S1). Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 18.48 (R1), the currency closed below it after spiking up to 18.50 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance might increase that levels significance going forward. After having been unable to move lower than 18.37 in the previous session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 18.36. The last time this happened on Wednesday, TRYJPY actually lost -0.54% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bounced off Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for TRY/JPY. Out of 472 times, TRYJPY closed lower 58.47% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.36% with an average market move of -0.52%.
With five out of the seven Major FX Pairs closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are GBPUSD losing -0.41% and AUDUSD closing -0.34% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been USDCHF closing 0.23% higher and USDCAD gaining 0.14%. Looking at the other Minor FX Pairs and Crosses, the winners of the day have been USDNOK surging 0.57% and USDPLN closing 0.53% higher. The worst performers of the day have been GBPJPY tanking -0.6% and AUDJPY closing -0.53% lower. Read more