TRYEUR stuck within tight trading range
Turkish Lira/Euro (TRYEUR) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 16, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
TRYEUR ended Wednesday at 0.1127 flat. Trading up to 4 pips lower after the open, TRY/EUR managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (TRYEUR as at Sep 16, 2020):
Wednesday's trading range has been 11 pips (0.98%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of 15 pips. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for TRYEUR. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 0.1121 and 0.1133 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Even with a weak opening the forex pair managed to close above the previous day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bullish High-Wave Candle and the Bullish Spinning Top which are both known as bullish patterns. The last time a Bullish High-Wave Candle showed up on August 21st, TRYEUR actually lost -0.95% on the following trading day.
The FX pair found buyers again today around 0.1122 for the third trading day in a row after having found demand at 0.1121 in the prior session and at 0.1122 two days ago.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 0.1138 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 0.1121 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bullish High-Wave Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for TRY/EUR. Out of 14 times, TRYEUR closed lower 50.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of -0.86%.